How we compute every number.

This page is the credibility. Nothing here is a black box — every figure is a documented calculation over public data.

01Where the data comes from

Orbits, sizes and close-approach times are pulled directly from NASA/JPL CNEOS, ESA's NEO Coordination Centre, and the IAU Minor Planet Center. We don't generate or model objects ourselves.

02Why everything is a range

Most sizes are estimated from brightness (absolute magnitude H) and an assumed reflectivity (albedo), which can vary 4×. We propagate that uncertainty into every derived figure — diameter, energy, blast radius — and show the band, never a single false-precise number.

03Impact energy & effect rings

We compute kinetic energy (½mv²) from the size and velocity ranges, convert to TNT-equivalent, and apply published blast- and thermal-scaling relations. Airburst vs ground impact is decided by size and composition. These are order-of-magnitude scale comparisons, not casualty models.

04What we deliberately don't do

No death tolls. No casualty counters. No single-number predictions. No red-alert framing. Population exposure is out of scope by design.