Risk list

Objects astronomers are actively monitoring.

Almost every object here is eventually ruled out as observations improve. The figures are tiny probabilities, shown honestly as ranges.

MIN SIZE0 m
16 of 16 objects
ObjectSizeImpact oddsPalermoTorinoWindowTrend
2010 RF125–13 m1 in 20 (5.0%)-3.302095–2117monitored
2023 DW40–100 m1 in 770 (0.13%)-2.812046–2054 watch
2012 HG29–22 m1 in 910 (0.11%)-4.102052–2118monitored
2000 SG34437–80 m1 in 1.1k (0.09%)-2.902069–2122 watch
2024 SA330–70 m1 in 2.5k (0.04%)-3.702057–2099 watch
2009 JF18–20 m1 in 3.8k (0.026%)-3.502047 onlymonitored
2021 EU16–40 m1 in 5.5k (0.018%)-4.002031–2117monitored
2008 JL320–48 m1 in 6.7k (0.015%)-3.602027–2122monitored
2019 DS118–44 m1 in 11k (0.009%)-4.302082–2120monitored
2017 WT2811–28 m1 in 14k (0.007%)-4.802104–2117monitored
2006 QV8920–50 m1 in 23k (0.004%)-5.202073–2096 falling
2016 TB5710–25 m1 in 25k (0.004%)-5.602089–2115 falling
2008 UB780–160 m1 in 100k (0.001%)-3.902046–2106monitored
2007 FT3260–420 m1 in 104k (0.001%)-3.002024–2119monitored
2005 ED22435–70 m1 in 480k (0.0002%)-4.502064–2104monitored
1979 XB390–900 m1 in 1.8M (0.00006%)-2.702056–2113monitored
Palermo scale compares the hazard to the random background risk — negative means below background, i.e. less likely than the everyday chance of a similar event.Torino scale runs 0–10. 0 = no hazard; 1 = routine, merits monitoring. Almost everything here is 0 or 1.
Recently added / removed
removedToday
2024 YR4

Ruled out after follow-up; odds fell ~600×.

added2 days ago
2025 SA3

Newly discovered; short arc, awaiting more data.

removed5 days ago
2019 SU3

Cleared as the orbit was refined.

See the 2024 YR4 timeline — how an object leaves this list →

Data: NASA/JPL CNEOS · ESA NEOCC · IAU MPC.