These objects are tracked and are NOT on a collision course with Earth. “If it hits” is a hypothetical to show scale.
Risk timeline · flagship data story
How 2024 YR4’s impact odds rose to a record — then collapsed in three weeks.
Impact probability is not a fixed fact. It moves as astronomers gather more observations and shrink an object’s orbit. Almost always, the trend is down.
Peak probability
3.1%
Feb 18, 2025
After follow-up
0.005%
Feb 20, 2025
Risk fell by
≈600×
in ~36 hours
Final status
Ruled out
Earth excluded for 2032
Impact probability over time
Hover an event to read what happened.
2025-02-183.1%
Peak — 3.1%
Highest impact probability recorded for any sizeable object since Apophis in 2004.
Timeline of events
Why this matters
2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024 — eight days after it had already made a close pass that nobody saw. That is the uncomfortable part: a city-scale object can arrive from the direction of the Sun and stay invisible until it is leaving.
For three weeks its odds of hitting Earth in 2032 climbed, peaking at 3.1% — the highest figure recorded for any sizeable object since Apophis in 2004. Then, as expected, more observations refined the orbit, Earth fell outside the corridor of uncertainty, and the probability collapsed to ~0.005%.
These objects are tracked and are NOT on a collision course with Earth. “If it hits” is a hypothetical to show scale. The figures here are illustrative of the real event and shown as the system reported them at the time.